Google bumps up Q Day estimate to 2029, far sooner than previously thought

Google has narrowed its Q Day deadline, saying it will be ready by 2029, a move the company argues should spur the entire industry to accelerate migration to post-quantum cryptography. In a post, Google states it is giving itself until 2029 to prepare for the arrival of Q Day and urges others to adopt PQC algorithms to augment or replace RSA and elliptic curves. The blog quotes Heather Adkins and Sophie Schmieg emphasising leadership and urgency to accelerate digital transitions across the industry.

January research cited by Google showed a 2048-bit RSA integer could be factored in less than a week with a quantum computer using 1 million “noisy qubits.” The National Institute of Standards and Technology has advanced several PQC algorithms expected to withstand quantum attacks, and the piece notes these are increasingly being integrated into products and protocols. The story also references a prior estimate by Craig Gidney on the same topic and Terms of the broader cryptographic transition.