ACCORDING to Kevin Townsend, cyberwarfare is a simmering, distributed reality that will escalate through 2026, with cyberwarfare likely to rise more dramatically than cyberwar in the near term. The piece notes that the UK MoD reshaped its Cyber and Specialist Operations Command on 1 September 2025 to drive deterrence and defence of military networks, while both the US and UK are described as ready to respond with cyber offensive capabilities or other measures.
It highlights a distinction some experts draw between cybercrime and nation-state activity, noting that attribution remains difficult and that criminal groups may be used by states to further strategic aims, creating a hybrid threat landscape. The article cites several voices, including Ilia Kolochenko on the Tallinn Manual framework, Andrew Lintell on the obsolescence of traditional cyberwar definitions, and Steve Stone warning of a cyber battlefield inside global infrastructure by 2026.
It also recalls historic moments such as the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Colonial Pipeline incident, using those examples to illustrate how pre-positioning and intelligence gathering could set the stage for future kinetic conflict.